The Six Sigma Crystal Ball
Of Cats and SUVs
In 1590, during her journey to Scotland, Princess Anne of Denmark--soon to be wedded to King James I of England--encountered a violent North Atlantic storm that prevented her from crossing the North Sea and joining her fiancée. King James decided to personally retrieve her and set sail for Norway. During their return journey, an even stronger storm waylaid King James' ship. After great difficulties, the couple finally reached Scotland. It was purported that witches caused the bad weather in an attempt to kill the king. The witch John Fian and other members of his coven were charged with having raised the storm by flinging cats into the sea. After weeks of torture, the culprits confessed to the assassination attempt. They were, of course, executed.
Thankfully, we're now much more enlightened and understand that unusually violent storms are caused by SUVs. |
One of the big problems Six Sigma practitioners encounter is explaining the methodology to people who've barely heard of it. This is even a problem outside the workplace, say at a cocktail party when someone asks you what you do. Responding with, "I'm a Six Sigma Black Belt" just doesn't convey anything meaningful. I've been looking for a way to describe what Six Sigma professionals do that packs a memorable punch, and I think I finally have it: We build crystal balls and then use them to change the future of our organizations.
The scientific name for our crystal ball is "model." The definition of a model most relevant for Six Sigma is a system of postulates, data and inferences presented as a mathematical description of an entity or state of affairs; it's also a computer simulation based on such a system. Models let us predict the future. They tell us that if we change certain inputs, the outputs will change in a predictable way. Models rigorously connect causes to effects. This allows us to assess the quality of our plans and strategies prior to deploying them.
With models, feedback becomes much more useful. We can compare the feedback to our predictions, adjust our models and craft ways to modify root causes. Feedback, which is really just data about what's already occurred, lacks context by itself. It doesn't provide clues as to why something occurred, and if we don't know, we can't say what will occur in the future. Without this knowledge, managers do what people have always done when stumped for an explanation: They make something up. This can lead to odd behavior. (See
sidebar.)
Having a crystal ball confers great power, and with that comes responsibility. What should leaders and managers who have this crystal ball do differently from traditional leaders and managers?
• Know what you're solving for. As a Master Black Belt friend of mine said, "Six Sigma will take you where you want to go very quickly. So you'd better know where you want to go." Solving the wrong problem quickly isn't helpful. Be sure you know what your stakeholder wants.
• Think process. Process thinking is feed-forward thinking. The items that you're solving for are outputs from processes. What are the inputs to these processes? What are the critical drivers of successful outcomes? How do they combine to produce the desired outcomes?
• Think statistically. You must understand statistical thinking to understand feedback. It's not enough merely to think you know something; the data and facts must prove it. Statistical methods are needed because real-world data are always dirty and noisy and can mislead you if you're not careful. • Rigorously address opportunities. Plan your improvement activities carefully to ensure that they attack root causes and not just symptoms. Be certain that effective control systems are in place to lock in your changes.
• Do more than just projects. Six Sigma is a way to manage everyday operations. It's a strategy deployment tool and a tool to change culture. If you limit yourself to projects, you're leaving too much money on the table.
• Execute, execute, execute. Anyone can talk a good game, but playing it well is another matter. Great sports teams don't necessarily do anything different than average or below-average sports teams, but they do what they do better.
Let's not get carried away with ourselves. As the statistician George E. P. Box noted, "All models are wrong. Some models are useful." Keeping an open mind is important to continue learning and improving your models. Stay humble. Your Six Sigma crystal ball will constantly cloud up and require revision. If you find yourself getting too cocky with your sophisticated analyses, remember what Peter Drucker said about predicting the future: "Forecasting is not a respectable human activity and not worthwhile beyond the shortest of periods." Wisdom is knowing when to go with the model's predictions and when to return to the drawing board.
Thomas Pyzdek, author of The Six Sigma Handbook , (McGraw-Hill, 2003), provides consulting and training to clients worldwide. He holds more than 50 copyrights and has written hundreds of papers on process improvement. Visit him at www.pyzdek.com.
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