Some predictions: 1. The demand for quality will grow as manufacturers are squeezed to produce more with no
price increase--because improved quality is the only way to accomplish that.
Now that the United States is officially in a recession, there will be great pressure on all those who sell something to someone else--whether another business enterprise or an individual--to maintain their prices but still get better. There is only one way this can happen: quality. As company executives get re-introduced to that fact, there will be a small boom in business for "quality consultants."
2. Quality by proclamation, in which the CEO announces that his or hers is a "quality company" but fails to invest in actual changes, still won't work.
Some CEOs will try to "do quality" the old-fashioned way--by faking it. They'll simply declare that they are the "quality alternative" and direct their advertising department to "get on board." The result will also be old-fashioned: unhappy customers and unhappy employees.
3. As 2001 saw the first education category Baldrige Award winners, 2002 will finally see a health care facility break through and win. In fact, there were three education
winners in the third year an "education Baldrige" was available. After the Baldrige was originally written in 1987-1988 with an unavoidable manufacturing bias, it took three years for a
service company to win the award. Health care is an incredibly complex business, so it's not surprising that there has not yet been a winner. But 2002 will see a winner for others to emulate. 4. Someone will announce that he or she knows how to do Seven Sigma on a regular basis and will begin wearing black suspenders--or, perhaps, magenta.
The fascination with Six Sigma and its multiplying belt colors is due to have some competition. Why not someone who takes it to the next level? 5. American cars will get better.
Unfortunately for the American economy, non-American cars will too. Yes, with all the joint-ownership and sharing of parts manufacturers, it is virtually impossible to identify a
"true" American car--or a "true" non-American car for that matter. The nameplates may not speak to the nationality of any specific metal component, but they do speak to the
philosophy that drives the assembly of the cars and the ultimate home address of a large chunk of the money used to buy them. On the current Consumer Search Web site, of the 48 automobile models
that are "top rated" across a dozen or so categories, 39 are non-American. 6. In the course of the year, there will be four new names for "quality" introduced
by books and/or motivational speakers--and two recycled names will be reintroduced.
For those who never understood the concept of "quality" in the first place, new names have been necessary on a periodic basis. That way, it need not be said that you missed your first several opportunities to 'do quality' over the last couple of decades, but you still can do it if you don't mind looking like a Johnny-come-lately. Instead, it can be said that you were wise to not fall for that "quality" thing. Here, continuous improvement (or re-engineering or whatever) is the real answer.
7. The ISO series will continue its steady move toward being a Baldrige clone.
After the International Standards Organization went through its "trade barrier" phase (when it was stressed in hopes of keeping American and Japanese goods out of Europe while European manufacturers got their act organized), it was discovered by old-line, comfort-seeking quality control guys in the United States. At that point, it was assessed as covering about 10 percent of what the Baldrige did. Since then, each ISO update has brought it closer. Just more expensive.
8. The vast majority of firms that claim to practice total quality management will define "total" in ways the dictionary never contemplated.
"Total" means everybody and everything. The overwhelming majority of TQM efforts actively involve 25 percent or less of the employees of the company. Such efforts should be called PQM for "partial quality management." There are points given for honesty.
9. Because enough time has passed since their initial efforts became too expensive to be justified, the federal government and the U.S. military will make another run at this
"quality stuff"--but without the army of outside consultants.
The initial efforts at quality in the federal government were uneven at best--some notable successes: a lot of money spent and a great number of failures or, at best, partial successes. The military tried it, too, but rather than develop its own processes rooted in what it knew and did well (leadership), officials hired civilian "experts" who didn't have a clue. The U.S. Navy's Total Quality Leadership, despite its great name, was the worst of the bunch.
10. More than one consultant who has, at some point in his or her career as a trainer, conducted some training for some group of firefighters (likely in New York) will publish a
book explaining how firefighters can be so excellent--and offer to build a similar training program for any company that wants it. What these consultants will miss (or skip over quickly) is
that firefighting has a built-in difference from virtually all commercial operations. Firefighting attracts people who are deeply committed to the mission of the organization before they join.
Once they do join, they are treated with respect and honor. Training such people can be heavily technical, and it can be immediately demanding. The need for perfection is obvious. The average
commercial operation starts with people who want a job--any job--and who must be convinced that what they are being paid to do is worth their getting excited about. Despite this
much-less-dedicated beginning point, these employees must also be treated with respect and honor if quality is the objective. Perhaps this is the constant that runs through all
of these thoughts about the future: that it really won't be that much different. Organizations that figure out that they're employees hold valuable knowledge that they are very willing to share
if the mechanics are made available to them--all of them--and are treated as trustworthy, capable adults, will continue to lead the way. Senior managers who rely on consultants to provide
leadership and technical knowledge, who insist on adversarial relationships with their employees, or who just don't "get it," despite the mountains of data proving that doing quality is
very smart business, will still wonder why others succeed and they don't. Just like last year. About the authors
Pat Townsend and Joan Gebhardt have written more than 200 articles and six books, including Commit to Quality (John Wiley & Sons, 1986);
Quality in Action: 93 Lessons in Leadership, Participation, and Measurement (John Wiley & Sons, 1992); Five-Star Leadership: The Art and Strategy of Creating Leaders at Every Level
(John Wiley & Sons, 1997); Recognition, Gratitude & Celebration (Crisp Publications, 1997); How Organizations Learn: Investigate, Identify, Institutionalize
(Crisp Publications, 1999); and Quality Is Everybody's Business (CRC Press, 1999). Pat Townsend has recently re-entered the corporate world and is now dealing with
"leadership.com" issues as a practitioner as well as an observer, writer and speaker. He is now chief quality officer for UICI, a diverse financial services corporation headquartered in
the Dallas area. E-mail the authors at ptownsend@qualitydigest.com . |
