(Tefen USA: New York) -- The imminent surge of more than 70 million aging baby boomers could overwhelm the U.S. health care system and engulf the nation’s tenuous economy, according to “Will the Boom Bust Health Care?” a new study by management consulting firm Tefen USA.

A recent report from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) predicts that unless decisive action is taken, total U.S. health care spending will double to just over $4.3 trillion by 2017, nearly 20 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. Tefen USA estimates that this figure could be considerably higher, based on its assessment of data that people over the age of 65 experience nearly three times as many hospital days per thousand as the general population, and that 62 percent of 50-to-64-year-olds report having at least one of six chronic health conditions: arthritis, high cholesterol, cancer, diabetes, heart disease, and hypertension.

According to Tefen, a decline in hospital capacity compounds the problem. The number of community hospitals decreased from 5,384 to 4,915 between 1990 and 2000.

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