Creators beat managers at predicting an innovation’s success—unless they’re predicting the success of their own work.

You probably know someone who owns an Apple Watch, or maybe you own one yourself. Is it a creative product? Well, the multifunction watch was creative the first time it appeared in science fiction, but that was a long time ago. Technologically a watch with the Apple Watch functionality has been possible for some time, but firms have waited because they were unsure if it could become a success. If fewer and fewer people wear watches, because smartphones do the same job and much more, why make a watch?

In fact, the potential for success of the Apple Watch was in dispute as soon as it was launched, and it’s still not settled. This is an issue that surfaces again and again: Firms need to estimate the potential success of ideas, both creative ones and more conventional ones. Innovative solutions are increasingly granting a competitive edge, but managers can’t invest in every novel idea that employees dream up. At the same time, organizations can’t afford to miss out on potentially transformational ideas.

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