The auto industry may be in for a double upending in the near future. First, the tipping point for self-driving cars is expected to occur between 2020 and 2026, according to experts’ estimates. Second, the rise of ride-sharing (otherwise known as “Uberization”) poses a potentially fatal threat to the prevailing business model. Looking ahead to the next decade, it’s impossible to predict the future of cars, let alone that of an industry based around putting a car in every driveway.

Automakers aren’t alone in confronting blinding, multileveled change. Before the iPhone, few anticipated that smartphones would essentially reshape the field of consumer electronics. Now, innovation is coming so rapidly that one in two consumers believes the smartphone itself will be obsolete by 2020.

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