Whether predicting demand for a product or forecasting spot prices for a resource or currency, we invariably seek out subjective opinions—expert viewpoints—to assist in the information-gathering process in order to make informed decisions. If forecasters are too closely linked, less information can be gleaned from their opinions, and decision-makers are more likely to make costly mistakes.

At times a decision maker may have access to plenty of relevant historical data on which to establish robust statistical models. However, in many instances, even with such data, an overlay of human judgment is inevitable to counter ever-changing conditions. In predicting the demand for a new fashion product, for example, it is important to account for not only issues such as rapidly changing tastes and competing products, but also the possibility of inducing demand for the product that might not otherwise exist.

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