June 1 marked the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through the end of November. It’s a busy time for us at the Tropical Meteorology Project in Colorado State University’s (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science, where we are issuing our 34th annual Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast.
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In early April we predicted a slightly below-normal hurricane season for 2017, with a total of 11 named storms (average is 12), four hurricanes (average is six) and two major hurricanes (average is two). To be named, a tropical cyclone must have maximum one-minute sustained winds of 39 mph. If it strengthens to 74 mph, it is called a hurricane, and if the winds reach 111 mph, it is called a major hurricane.
Here’s a look at how we develop our forecasts.
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