Does your use of probabilities confuse your audience? Sometimes even using numbers can be misleading. The notion of a 1-in-a-100-year flood doesn’t prevent the possibility of flooding occurring in consecutive years. This description is no more than a statistical device for explaining the likelihood of flooding occurring.

Similarly, when we check the news for weather conditions and are told that there is a 90-percent chance of rain, this only means that on days with similar metrological conditions, it rained on 90 percent of them. As with the flooding comparison, it’s simply a mathematical method that expresses the likelihood of an incident occurring.

Gamblers are adept at playing the odds. In poker, rather than thinking that getting three-of-a-kind is “unlikely,” they know that the chance of that happening is about 5 percent. If two cards are dealt and are a “pair,” the chance increases to 12 percent. Though both probabilities are relatively small, the difference between them is enough to influence a gambler’s decision at the table.

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