The terms “black swan” and “perfect storm” have become common for describing disasters ranging from the 2008 financial meltdown to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. But according to Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, a Stanford professor of management science and engineering, people in government and industry are using these terms too liberally in the aftermath of a disaster as an excuse for poor planning.

Her research, published in the November 2012 issue of the journal, Risk Analysis, suggests that other fields could borrow risk analysis strategies used in engineering to make better management decisions, even after experiencing once-in-a-blue-moon events where statistics are scant, unreliable, or nonexistent.

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