I
n the past there was only one criterion required to be a good supplier: you had to ship very few nonconforming items. If your proportion of nonconforming items took a turn for the worse then you would be “in trouble,” and you would stay in trouble until your fraction nonconforming dropped back down to “an acceptable level.”
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Based on this one criterion most suppliers would alternate between being in trouble and operating okay. As long as you were operating okay you could have an attitude of benign neglect toward your operations. But when you were in trouble you would have to bring in the problem-solving team to fix the process. The world of the manufacturer was characterized by alternating periods of benign neglect and intense panic, which could be summarized by a single dimension, as shown in figure 1.
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Six Sigma
This excellent article might also have pointed out that a so called "six sigma process" may be "On the Brink of Chaos".
Projects "In Chaos"
Another great article, Don. Knowing whether a process is stable or not should be at the top of everyone's criteria list for improvement project selection. Those that are not stable can't be fixed until they are (and may not need to be worked on once they are). For those that are in the threshold state, projects aimed at fundamentally changing the process to get on target (and then reduce variation) are appropriate. The problem that I consistently see is that there are too few people practicing any semblance of SPC to know what state they are in, so they throw projects at every squeaky wheel that comes along.
The other day I had a well-meaning young engineer at a medical device company ask me what he could do to find the right distribution so he could estimate Ppk for a product qualification run. I asked whether the run had been stable; had there been evidence of a state of statistical control?
"No," he replied, "we just made a batch of 30 prototypes. There were a lot of outliers. I ran a curve-fitting program and found that the data were a good fit for one Johnson Transformation and a 3-parameter Weibull, but another run wouldn't fit any curve at all. Our process is to find the distribution that fits, and then run a non-normal capability study using that distribution."
I told him that there were so many things wrong with that statement that I wasn't sure where to start, then pointed out (again) that, without a state of statistical control, he has no distribution, and no business estimating capability. I told him several other things, and he pushed back, saying that he has no choice; this is the process he's given, and he has to live with it. I suggested that if that is the case, he might try running prototypes one at a time until the pile passes his curve-fitting software's threshold for a fit, or gets a pile he can transform. Then get a job with another manager, if possible.
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