A hypothesis-driven approach to problem solving and making recommendations can be tremendously efficient. You create a hypothesis (i.e., something taken to be true for the sake of argument), conduct analysis designed to prove or disprove the hypothesis, then make your recommendation based on the results of your analysis. Typically, your hypothesis is based upon prior experiences you’ve had as well as your knowledge of the subject matter you’re evaluating.

I’ve personally used this approach for years. I refer to it as the structured thought process. The method is both efficient and effective. That said, using this approach is not without risks.

Risk No. 1: Confirmation bias
Although it’s great to have experience and prove your hypotheses are correct, that same experience carries risk with it. Confirmation bias—the tendency to look for or interpret information in a way that confirms your preconceived ideas—is the biggest risk you face when using a hypothesis-driven approach like the structured thought process.

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