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Chickens come home to roost, and canaries meet their demise in coal mines. But hey, we knew there was a high probability of each happening eventually, right? However, when a black swan shows up with severe impact and consequences, everyone is caught off guard. I’m wondering if it’s a black swan when you could have seen it coming?
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A swan of a different color
Oddly enough, definitions of the term usually include ambivalent statements concerning hindsight:
“A Black Swan event is an event in human history that was unprecedented and unexpected at the point in time it occurred. However, after evaluating the surrounding context, domain experts (and in some cases even laymen) can usually conclude: ‘It was bound to happen.’”
—Black Swan
“A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.”
—Investopedia
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Comments
Not only bound to happen, but past time.
"The problem with auto sales is the new-car sales model; current state laws prohibit OEMs from selling new vehicles directly to consumers (D2C). Selling directly would cut out the dealership franchise—the middleman—and all the associated price markup fees. This could theoretically save car buyers an alleged 30 percent of the cost of a car."
Henry Ford wrote roughly 100 years ago that anything that does not add value for the supply chain's stakeholders is waste, and everything must either produce or get out. There needs to come a time when customers refuse to patronize non-value-adding dealerships and, if necessary, buy used vehicles (which can be done directly between individuals) to eliminate this waste. The independent auto dealerships cited in this article are yet another good way to get waste out of the supply chain.
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