Feel-Good Data Analysis Won't Save Firefighters’ Lives

“Wishin’ and hopin’ and thinkin’ and prayin’...”

An article titled “Sharp Drop in Firefighter Fatalities in 2009” appeared in a safety trade journal recently. For the first time in three years, it said, on-the-job firefighter fatalities dropped below 100. The article went on to say that the 82 firefighter deaths in 2009 were substantially below the 10-year average of 98 and down from 105 in 2005.

What prompted me to write this article was the following quote: “While a drop over one year isn’t enough to show a trend… [w]e are hopeful that we will continue to see fewer and fewer firefighter fatalities over the next 10 years.” I was reminded of the old song by Dusty Springfield, “Wishin’ and Hopin’,” in which a young woman sadly admits she has to do more than “wishin’ and hopin’ and thinkin’ and prayin’” to be his. She has to do something differently.

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Operational Definitions

Nice article. It amazes me how the media continues to get in wrong (numerical naivete).
One very important thing that is often over-looked when analyzing time series data is the need of Operational Definitions (how the count or measurement is defined). In fact, according to Deming, Shewhart considered this to be more important than his invention of the control chart. I know with the number of adminstrative metrics that are used to compare data from different months, departments and plant sites etc, the importance of OD can't be emphasized enough in my view. For example, if a fire fighter dies from a stroke or heart attach 3 days after fighting a fire, is that included as a job related fatality? I often wonder when I see evidence of improvement, whether the measurement process has changed.

Rich

Another theory of cause

I recently saw results of a study that ranked firefighting as one of the most "mentally" stressful jobs - again a condition that could be contributing to cardiac problems along with or instead of physical shape. I liked your article and the use of the data to strive for improvement instead of just being used to make it "sound" like things are getting better for unstated reasons.